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아르헨티나의 네스토르 키르츠네르 정부가 오는 25일 희망과 우려 속에 공식 출범한다. 새 정권에 대한 국민들의 기대는 높지만, 서구 자본과 국제금융기구들은 브라질에 이어 아르헨티나에서도 중도좌파 정권이 탄생하자 라틴아메리카 `좌파바람'을 우려하며 촉각을 곤두세우고 있다.
첫 고비
키르츠네르 당선자의 첫번째 과제는 국제통화기금(IMF)과의 채무상환조정 협상이다. 이 협상은 새 정권의 행보를 가늠케 해줄 잣대여서 관심이 집중되고 있다. 그러나 협상이 순탄치는 않을 전망이다. 양측 간에는 벌써 마찰 조짐이 나타났다.
IMF의 톰 도슨 대외관계국장은 22일 "아르헨티나는 협상을 하기 전에 구조개혁을 해야 한다"고 경고했다. 이 발언은 전날 키르츠네르 당선자가 "외채 상환 요구에 무리해서 따르지는 않을 것"이라고 말한 바로 다음에 나왔다. 10월까지 IMF에 50억달러를 갚아야 하는 아르헨티나는 빚을 줄여주고 상환일을 미뤄달라며 협상을 벌이고 있다. 아르헨티나는 총 1360억달러의 외국빚을 안고 있다.
IMF가 문제삼는 것은 몇가지 금융정책들(만 있는 것은 물론 아니지만 ^^;;)이다. 일례로 아르헨티나 의회는 지난해말 은행들이 주택대출금을 갚지 못한 채무자의 집을 압류하지 못하게 하는 법안을 통과시켰다. IMF는 이 법이 금융기관에 손해를 입힌다면서 폐지를 요구하고 있다. 그러나 키르츠네르 당선자 측은 "그것은 우리 의회가 결정할 문제"라며 맞서고 있다.
'좌파바람' 성공할까
아르헨티나와 브라질의 경제 성과는 중남미 전체에 파장을 미칠 것으로 예상된다. 90년대 이후 `오른쪽으로' 향했던 라틴아메리카 주요국들은 최근 다시 좌선회하고 있다. 로이터통신은 "90년대 이후 경제난이 심화되면서 역내 5억 인구는 미국식 세계화에 지쳐버렸다"고 표현했다. 각국 국민들은 IMF를 `국제빈곤기금(International Misery Fund)'이라 비난하고 있다. 이런 감정은 대내적으로는 좌파 집권, 대외적으로는 이라크전 비협조라는 모습으로 나타났다. 90년대 미국과 돈독한 관계였던 아르헨티나는 이런 분위기 변화를 그대로 보여준다. 키르츠네르 당선자는 브라질에 `대미관계 공조'를 제안해놓고 있다.
그러나 서방을 상대로 제 목소리를 내기에는 발목을 잡는 요인들이 너무 많다. 당장 외채 문제가 그렇고, 돈줄을 쥔 외국 투자자들과의 관계도 무시 못한다.
키르츠네르 당선자는 시장의 횡포에 지친 국민들을 달래면서 동시에 경제를 살리고, 서방의 신임도 얻아야 하는 난제를 안고 있다. 희망이 있다면 경제가 호전될 기미를 보이고 있다는 점. 이달초 IMF는 아르헨티나의 올 국내총생산(GDP) 성장률 예상치를 3.0%에서 4.0%로 상향조정했다. 반면 35%로 예상됐던 인플레는 15-20%로 떨어질 전망이다.
첫 고비
키르츠네르 당선자의 첫번째 과제는 국제통화기금(IMF)과의 채무상환조정 협상이다. 이 협상은 새 정권의 행보를 가늠케 해줄 잣대여서 관심이 집중되고 있다. 그러나 협상이 순탄치는 않을 전망이다. 양측 간에는 벌써 마찰 조짐이 나타났다.
IMF의 톰 도슨 대외관계국장은 22일 "아르헨티나는 협상을 하기 전에 구조개혁을 해야 한다"고 경고했다. 이 발언은 전날 키르츠네르 당선자가 "외채 상환 요구에 무리해서 따르지는 않을 것"이라고 말한 바로 다음에 나왔다. 10월까지 IMF에 50억달러를 갚아야 하는 아르헨티나는 빚을 줄여주고 상환일을 미뤄달라며 협상을 벌이고 있다. 아르헨티나는 총 1360억달러의 외국빚을 안고 있다.
IMF가 문제삼는 것은 몇가지 금융정책들(만 있는 것은 물론 아니지만 ^^;;)이다. 일례로 아르헨티나 의회는 지난해말 은행들이 주택대출금을 갚지 못한 채무자의 집을 압류하지 못하게 하는 법안을 통과시켰다. IMF는 이 법이 금융기관에 손해를 입힌다면서 폐지를 요구하고 있다. 그러나 키르츠네르 당선자 측은 "그것은 우리 의회가 결정할 문제"라며 맞서고 있다.
'좌파바람' 성공할까
아르헨티나와 브라질의 경제 성과는 중남미 전체에 파장을 미칠 것으로 예상된다. 90년대 이후 `오른쪽으로' 향했던 라틴아메리카 주요국들은 최근 다시 좌선회하고 있다. 로이터통신은 "90년대 이후 경제난이 심화되면서 역내 5억 인구는 미국식 세계화에 지쳐버렸다"고 표현했다. 각국 국민들은 IMF를 `국제빈곤기금(International Misery Fund)'이라 비난하고 있다. 이런 감정은 대내적으로는 좌파 집권, 대외적으로는 이라크전 비협조라는 모습으로 나타났다. 90년대 미국과 돈독한 관계였던 아르헨티나는 이런 분위기 변화를 그대로 보여준다. 키르츠네르 당선자는 브라질에 `대미관계 공조'를 제안해놓고 있다.
그러나 서방을 상대로 제 목소리를 내기에는 발목을 잡는 요인들이 너무 많다. 당장 외채 문제가 그렇고, 돈줄을 쥔 외국 투자자들과의 관계도 무시 못한다.
키르츠네르 당선자는 시장의 횡포에 지친 국민들을 달래면서 동시에 경제를 살리고, 서방의 신임도 얻아야 하는 난제를 안고 있다. 희망이 있다면 경제가 호전될 기미를 보이고 있다는 점. 이달초 IMF는 아르헨티나의 올 국내총생산(GDP) 성장률 예상치를 3.0%에서 4.0%로 상향조정했다. 반면 35%로 예상됐던 인플레는 15-20%로 떨어질 전망이다.
Tuesday, June 3, 2003
A shaky start
Andres Gaudin
President Kirchner faces destabilizing moves.
Nestor Kirchner, a Peronist who for 12 years governed the southern province of Santa Cruz, was signed in May 25 for a four-year presidential term. The presidency landed in his lap after former President Carlos Menem (1989-1999) withdrew from a run-off due to be held May 18.
In the first round Menem obtained 24.5 percent of the votes and Kirchner 22.4. All the polls predicted that Menem would suffer a massive defeat in the run-off on account of his economic policies of social exclusion and accusations of corruption. Some pollsters calculated that the anti-Menem vote would be as high as 65 points. Incapable of facing up to reality and unconcerned about his impact on the political system, Menem abandoned the fight, depriving Kirchner the means of legitimizing his administration.
Menem openly attempted to destabilize the situation, predicting the day he dropped out of the race that "with Kirchner Argentina will become another Cuba and collapse into chaos." The statement stirred reactions in every political party with the exception of those on the left (3.8 percent of the electorate).
Ultraliberal Ricardo Lopez Murphy, who came third in the April 27 elections, said he was open to collaborating with the new government. Progressive Elisa Carri? who finished fifth in the balloting, is giving Kirchner the benefit of the doubt but warned that her party, Alternative for a Republic of Equals, would not participate in the government.
Kirchner became the first president in Argentina's history to assume office with such a low proportion of the vote. The new government is conscious of its weakness. Even if he had won the run-off with an overwhelming majority, Kirchner knew that in such a highly polarized election his success would have been thanks to a high number of anti-Menem votes. He also knew that he ascended to the presidency with the help of former President Eduardo Duhalde, a Menem opponent and head of the most powerful wing of the Peronist party.
The new president comes from a generation of 1970s social militants. During his days as a student activist he suffered the brutal repression of the most recent military dictatorship (1976-1983). Many of his former companions are among the country's 30,000 disappeared persons. And yet, Kirchner stayed with the Peronists, absorbed their vices and, according to his critics, governed Santa Cruz as if it were his fiefdom.
Great grandson of Swiss immigrants, the son of a Chilean woman of Croatian descent, Kirchner married the daughter of a native of Galicia, Spain, who settled in Argentina when the country was opening its doors to everyone. Kirchner has that typical Argentine mix of nationalities, and has lived his entire life in Santa Cruz, the land of internal migrants. He is what southerners call a "NyC," (nacido y criado) born and raised in the province's difficult terrain.
His first moves as president indicate that his administration could have regional relevance. He made clear his decision not to be tied down by the programs of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), to renew the Southern Common Market (MERCOSUR) and maintain a policy of non-alignment with the United States. With Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, he agreed on arriving at policies through bilateral consultation.
In domestic politics Kirchner also differs from his predecessors. Contrary to IMF recommendations he hopes to generate employment through a "master plan of public works," the details of which are yet to be defined. His relations with giant financial corporations ?favored by recent administrations ?are not good.
The new president faces a dramatic reality. With production capacity destroyed, 57.5 percent of the population living in poverty--a fourth of them indigent--unemployment is more than 20 percent and 2 million heads of households barely survive on a state subsidy of less than US$2.00 a day.
The question raised by political analysts, politicians and leading social figures is to what extent, if Kirchner is sincere in his proposals, can he address this overwhelming reality? In general, the answers are not encouraging. No one can ignore that he came to the presidency because Duhalde was unable to find a better candidate to challenge Menem.
The elections divided the Peronist movement. The old radicalism of former Presidents Raul Alfonsin (1983-1989) and Fernando de la Rua(1999-2001) only gained 2.6 percent of the vote. And all the leftist parties together barely won 3.8 percent. Meanwhile, the liberal right of Lopez Murphy has showed its muscle with support from 16.7 percent of the electorate.
The new political map does not favor Kirchner. What's more, as of December he will have to govern with a newly formed Congress. Until then he will depend upon whatever agreements he can stitch together.
He faces a right wing untrammeled by ethical considerations. One only has to quote the editorial in the conservative daily La Nacion published on May 14: "Argentina has decided to give itself a government for one year." The right, as in the first round of elections, when it put all its money on either Menem or Lopez Murphy, is attempting to destabilize the government.
A shaky startAndres Gaudin
President Kirchner faces destabilizing moves.
Nestor Kirchner, a Peronist who for 12 years governed the southern province of Santa Cruz, was signed in May 25 for a four-year presidential term. The presidency landed in his lap after former President Carlos Menem (1989-1999) withdrew from a run-off due to be held May 18.
In the first round Menem obtained 24.5 percent of the votes and Kirchner 22.4. All the polls predicted that Menem would suffer a massive defeat in the run-off on account of his economic policies of social exclusion and accusations of corruption. Some pollsters calculated that the anti-Menem vote would be as high as 65 points. Incapable of facing up to reality and unconcerned about his impact on the political system, Menem abandoned the fight, depriving Kirchner the means of legitimizing his administration.
Menem openly attempted to destabilize the situation, predicting the day he dropped out of the race that "with Kirchner Argentina will become another Cuba and collapse into chaos." The statement stirred reactions in every political party with the exception of those on the left (3.8 percent of the electorate).
Ultraliberal Ricardo Lopez Murphy, who came third in the April 27 elections, said he was open to collaborating with the new government. Progressive Elisa Carri? who finished fifth in the balloting, is giving Kirchner the benefit of the doubt but warned that her party, Alternative for a Republic of Equals, would not participate in the government.
Kirchner became the first president in Argentina's history to assume office with such a low proportion of the vote. The new government is conscious of its weakness. Even if he had won the run-off with an overwhelming majority, Kirchner knew that in such a highly polarized election his success would have been thanks to a high number of anti-Menem votes. He also knew that he ascended to the presidency with the help of former President Eduardo Duhalde, a Menem opponent and head of the most powerful wing of the Peronist party.
The new president comes from a generation of 1970s social militants. During his days as a student activist he suffered the brutal repression of the most recent military dictatorship (1976-1983). Many of his former companions are among the country's 30,000 disappeared persons. And yet, Kirchner stayed with the Peronists, absorbed their vices and, according to his critics, governed Santa Cruz as if it were his fiefdom.
Great grandson of Swiss immigrants, the son of a Chilean woman of Croatian descent, Kirchner married the daughter of a native of Galicia, Spain, who settled in Argentina when the country was opening its doors to everyone. Kirchner has that typical Argentine mix of nationalities, and has lived his entire life in Santa Cruz, the land of internal migrants. He is what southerners call a "NyC," (nacido y criado) born and raised in the province's difficult terrain.
His first moves as president indicate that his administration could have regional relevance. He made clear his decision not to be tied down by the programs of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), to renew the Southern Common Market (MERCOSUR) and maintain a policy of non-alignment with the United States. With Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, he agreed on arriving at policies through bilateral consultation.
In domestic politics Kirchner also differs from his predecessors. Contrary to IMF recommendations he hopes to generate employment through a "master plan of public works," the details of which are yet to be defined. His relations with giant financial corporations ?favored by recent administrations ?are not good.
The new president faces a dramatic reality. With production capacity destroyed, 57.5 percent of the population living in poverty--a fourth of them indigent--unemployment is more than 20 percent and 2 million heads of households barely survive on a state subsidy of less than US$2.00 a day.
The question raised by political analysts, politicians and leading social figures is to what extent, if Kirchner is sincere in his proposals, can he address this overwhelming reality? In general, the answers are not encouraging. No one can ignore that he came to the presidency because Duhalde was unable to find a better candidate to challenge Menem.
The elections divided the Peronist movement. The old radicalism of former Presidents Raul Alfonsin (1983-1989) and Fernando de la Rua(1999-2001) only gained 2.6 percent of the vote. And all the leftist parties together barely won 3.8 percent. Meanwhile, the liberal right of Lopez Murphy has showed its muscle with support from 16.7 percent of the electorate.
The new political map does not favor Kirchner. What's more, as of December he will have to govern with a newly formed Congress. Until then he will depend upon whatever agreements he can stitch together.
He faces a right wing untrammeled by ethical considerations. One only has to quote the editorial in the conservative daily La Nacion published on May 14: "Argentina has decided to give itself a government for one year." The right, as in the first round of elections, when it put all its money on either Menem or Lopez Murphy, is attempting to destabilize the government.
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